Poll Shows Marco Rubio Ahead of Florida Senate Opponent Val Demings

According to a new survey in the Florida Senate race, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is leading Democrat Rep. Val Demings by a sizable seven percentage points, with President Biden’s favorability rating in the state tumbling to 40 percent.

Registered Voters

According to a nonpartisan Maxon Dixon poll conducted between February 7 and 10 and released on Wednesday, Rubio is leading Demings by a margin of 49 to 42 points, when it comes to registered voters.

Only 9% of those who voted were uncertain of their choice. 

Because of Rubio’s 10-point edge among important Independent voters and Biden’s political difficulties, the Florida senator has a significant advantage in the contest.

In the past, Floridians were used to being a swing state. Since former President Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2020, the state has moved more to the right.

The report from Maxon Dixon says registered party voters appear to be entrenched along political lines; recent elections imply that trend is likely to remain in 2022.

The ability of Demings to garner a larger number of unaffiliated votes will be critical in pulling off an upset.

Rubio, 50, a native of the Miami region running for his third term in the Senate, is considered a potential presidential contender in 2024. This comes after him unsuccessfully competing for the presidency six years ago.

The 64-year-old Demings was first elected to represent a House seat in the Orlando area in 2016. She was widely thought to be the Democrat Party’s best choice to take on Marco Rubio.

They came into the race with nearly equal war coffers—Rubio had $10.6 million on hand and Demings had $8.2 million on hand—but their respective war chests were significantly different.

Demings’ Chances and Biden’s Ratings

If Biden’s job approval ratings stay low, Rubio’s Democrat rival will possibly have difficulty keeping up with him.

In the Mason Dixon survey, 55 percent said they didn’t like the president. Disapproval rose to 59 percent for men, all voters 50 years and older, and reached 61 percent for people who didn’t belong to a party.

There were only a few bright spots for Demings in the survey. She had an 82 percent to 7 percent advantage over Rubio among black voters.

She had a 48 to 41 percent advantage over the senator among women. Likewise, Demings had a 53 percent to 40 percent advantage over him in the Southeast Florida region. Approximately four percentage points were within the error margin of the poll.

The only thing Demings has to offer is the prospect of adding Florida to the list of states where Democrats have succumbed to out-of-state money and suffered anticlimactic losses.

It may be a good career move for her, just as it was for Harrison, who is now the chairman of the DNC, but it is not a prescription for Senate victory, as Harrison discovered.