Oh Dear, Roe v. Wade Won’t Cost the Republicans the Election

Strange things happened on route to the alleged midterms change caused by the Dobbs case.
The landmark Roe v. Wade decision by the Supreme Court, which Democrats hoped would shock voters into backing them, hasn’t had much of an impact on politics.

Republicans Hold the Lead

There hasn’t exactly been a polling earthquake, but the Republican lead in the generic House race has shrunk somewhat.

In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Republicans had a two-point advantage over Democrats in mid-May and still hold that advantage now.

Dobbs is a genuinely momentous case; the effects of this will be felt for years to come and cannot be fully recognized. It fails, however, as a rapid fix for the political problems facing the Democrat Party.

There are several things happening. First, the ruling itself received less attention than it deserved when the draft opinion from May was leaked.

When Justice Alito’s opinion was announced, it wasn’t nearly old news, but everyone had time to process the idea it was certainly coming.

This reduced the shock factor and made the decision top news for days, instead of weeks.

The majority of individuals don’t have strong opinions on abortion either way, which is another factor. Although not drastically, more people now report it is a top-of-mind issue; the effect may wear off with time.

Inflation is the primary concern for a large majority of voters, as of the most recent Harvard/Harris poll, with 62 percent stating it is their top or second concern.

Along with fuel prices, crime, and immigration, 20 percent of people indicate they are either very concerned or somewhat concerned about abortion rights.

Only 5% of Independents, 9% of Democrats, and 0% of Republicans identified abortion as their top worry, according to a Monmouth poll. A New York Times/Sienna poll conducted in the meanwhile revealed the same results.

An issue that only affects such a small percentage of voters simply cannot be used to swing a national election.

Democrats Get it Wrong

Without a doubt, repealing Roe polls poorly.

However, there is also a misconception in the public that overturning the ruling will result in a blanket ban on abortion, which is untrue.

Despite all the discussion of Dobbs’ radicalism, it doesn’t enforce a set national law. Instead, it enables states to enact various laws in accordance with the will of their electorates, which reflect the country’s varied political and moral topography.

The system becomes very flexible as a result.

Of course, there will be those in every state who differ with the prevalent opinion on this matter; provisions in a particular state may cause uproar on a national scale.

However, neither Texas nor California needs to be concerned about any organization forcing its standards on them.

This article appeared in The Patriot Brief and has been published here with permission.

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