Montana's hotly contested Senate race between incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy is intensifying, with Tester's campaign strategy drawing criticism for its aggressive negative ads. Tester's political survival in the Republican-leaning state has often depended on portraying himself as a moderate who shares Montana values. However, his approach in this election, heavily reliant on negative advertising, appears to be backfiring.
Tester's latest ads have targeted Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and businessman, as an out-of-state millionaire exploiting Montana's public lands for profit. The ads paint Sheehy as a wealthy outsider who doesn’t understand or represent everyday Montanans. Tester's campaign has even labeled his opponent "Shady Sheehy," referencing Sheehy's wealth and business ties. Despite this, Sheehy has a significant presence in Montana, having founded Bridger Aerospace, a firefighting company based in Bozeman, after moving to the state in 2014).
No one in Montana wants the government telling them how to live their lives. But the truth is reproductive freedom has been ripped away and that ain’t right. No politician, bureaucrat, or judge should ever come between a woman and her health care decisions. pic.twitter.com/SX6wCppWA3
— Jon Tester (@jontester) September 19, 2024
The GOP challenger, Sheehy, has responded by criticizing Tester for distorting facts and relying on dark money from out-of-state donors to fuel his attack ads. Sheehy, who has earned praise for his service and entrepreneurial ventures, has turned Tester's attacks into opportunities, arguing that the ads reflect a lack of respect for Montanans' intelligence. Political observers note that Tester's portrayal of Sheehy as an elitist has drawn skepticism, with voters increasingly questioning whether the senator’s negative ads align with Montana values.
Tester's negative campaigning has not been limited to this race. In previous elections, he has deployed similar tactics, often painting his GOP opponents as out-of-touch outsiders. In 2018, his campaign labeled Rep. Matt Rosendale, who relocated to Montana from Maryland, as "Maryland Matt," casting doubt on his connection to the state. This same narrative has been used against Governor Greg Gianforte in his earlier campaigns, as Democrats attempted to frame him as a carpetbagger, despite his long-standing presence in Montana.
Trump was in deep red Montana yesterday to get revenge on Jon Tester for investigating Ronny Jackson, the “Candyman” who turned the White House into a pill mill.
I’ve already donated the max to Tester.
If you’re so inclined, give what you can. https://t.co/yD3O8UxDQe https://t.co/cdvAnT6BHM
— Jon Cryer (@MrJonCryer) August 10, 2024
As the 2024 Senate race reaches a crucial stage, both candidates are heavily funded by super PACs, with over $44 million reportedly spent by September. Much of this funding has been poured into advertising, turning Montana into a battleground state where the balance of power in the U.S. Senate could be decided. With Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia announcing he will not seek reelection, the Montana race has gained heightened importance. A Tester defeat could shift Senate control to Republicans, dramatically altering the political landscape for either a potential second Trump administration or a continuation of the Biden-Harris administration.
Despite trailing in the polls—Sheehy holds a 5.2-point lead according to RealClearPolitics averages—Tester remains a resilient figure in Montana politics. Known for his ability to appeal to conservative voters while maintaining his Democratic base, Tester has survived three previous elections in a state that has become increasingly red.
However, this race is shaping up to be his toughest yet. His critics argue that his close alignment with President Biden’s policies, voting with the administration 95% of the time, contradicts the moderate persona he projects to voters.
In the final weeks before the November election, Tester's campaign has pivoted slightly, emphasizing his roots as a farmer from Big Sandy, Montana, and downplaying the harsh tone of his earlier ads. Whether this shift will be enough to counter Sheehy's growing popularity remains uncertain. With Republicans energized and the stakes so high, both sides will continue their battle for Montana's pivotal Senate seat.
