While history and polls favor Republicans in their bid to unseat Democrats in Washington, both parties’ analysts say the 2022 election season is far from certain.
Some Democrats are fighting back against Republicans’ claims that “Democrats are in turmoil,” but intra-GOP fights could add to the drama.
Unity Above All
Republicans must quit bickering, says GOP strategist Cesar Conda.
Democratic squabbles over President Biden’s expansive social welfare and environmental agendas dominated his first year in office.
Republicans face similar challenges, Conda told the Washington Examiner. He referenced the RNC’s rebuke of Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney and Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger for their House Jan. 6 panel membership.
Democratic version of supply-side economics. https://t.co/DmHpCJmark
— CesarConda (@CesarConda) March 13, 2022
“The Republican Party needs unity, or at least the appearance of unity,” Conda remarked.
Several senators, including Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Mitt Romney of Utah, said they didn’t like the RNC’s rebuke of the lawmakers.
Another example is Mitch McConnell’s criticism of Rick Scott’s 11-point “Rescue America” plan. The Florida senator’s proposal was slammed as a tax rise.
“No plan that raises taxes on half the population and sunsets Social Security and Medicare after five years will be on our agenda,” McConnell stated. “The Republican Senate majority will not support that.”
Republicans’ disagreement might “alter the equation” on Nov. 8, said former strategist Christopher Hahn.
The Republicans’ main challenges to retaking Congress are the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade and Trump supporters’ winning primaries.
Former Republican turned Independent analyst Dan Schnur says Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin is a role model for balancing Trump supporters and opponents.
However, a generic congressional ballot shows Republicans with a four percentage point edge over Democrats.
A recent Morning Consult tracking survey shows the GOP leading the Democrats by one point, 42 percent to 43 percent. That’s a three-point gain over September when Democrats had 44% to Republicans’ 40%.
Democrats Leading, But Not For Long
The economy, including taxes, expenditures, jobs, unemployment, and earnings was this month’s top Morning Consult worry.
The GOP narrowed the Democrats’ 27-point edge among Hispanics. Demographically, Democrats now lead by ten points.
Fed-up Hispanic voters are opting for GOP candidates https://t.co/RsGK7c0M38 via @nypost
— Mona Davids – Unbought and Unbossed (@MonaDavids) March 17, 2022
Conda warns Republicans against assuming disgruntled Democrats and Independents will immediately switch sides.
Republican remedies to criminality, education, immigration, and hyperinflation should be “commonsense,” he argued, unlike McConnell, who prefers to keep the information quiet until after the races.
Conda argued Democrats’ “woke ideology and lack of attention to crime and education” pushed Hispanics and Asian Americans away.
Ex-assistants to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Vice President Dick Cheney said they should be strong on China and illegal immigration without alienating Asian and Hispanic Americans. “Republicans must be more than the opposition.”
However, the RNC is less concerned than Conda because former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost seats in their first administrations. Clinton lost more than 50 seats in 1994 and Obama lost more than 60 seats in 2010.