The latest Republican poll in Michigan demonstrates how aggravating President Biden’s political fragility may be for House Democrats.
In the current 7th Congressional District, a late November survey conducted by Cygnal marked Biden’s support rating at an awful 40%, with 56% complaining about his presidency.
• Slotkin polling in low 40’s against multiple challengers (well into the danger zone)
• GOP leads generic ballot by 10 points
• Biden down 16 (!) pointshttps://t.co/cKemVU7c63
— Calvin Moore (@CalvinMoore_) January 5, 2022
In the same poll, Republicans won the generic ballot by a staggering 10 percentage points, 51 percent to 41 percent. That might signal difficulty for Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s second term in 2022.
Difficult Times to be a Democrat
The incumbent Democrat is fighting for reelection in the newly reconfigured district, ranging from suburban Detroit to the western suburbs of Lansing, which Biden would have taken by one point over then-President Trump in 2020.
Her image is rated 39% positive and 37% unfavorable overall; although, it is somewhat negative among critical Independent voters.
Cygnal surveyors Brock McCleary and Tiffany Beverly said in a polling memo produced for the Congressional Leadership Fund (the super PAC connected to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy) that Slotkin is very well recognized, but not well-loved.
According to the report, Slotkin is politically controversial because Democrat voters support her uniformly. Republicans are united in their criticism, while Independents are divided. Slotkin will have little room for expansion in the new area.
The district, classified as R+4 by the Michigan Independent Citizens Reapportionment Commission, was created to give Republicans a minor advantage.
However, the position is highly competitive. It would have supported Trump by four points in 2016; four years before 2016, it would have gone to President Obama by three points.
"Republicans are uniform in their opposition and Independents are split. Leaving Slotkin with little room for growth," pollsters said.https://t.co/vJ52isTuFz
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) January 5, 2022
A key Republican priority in the next midterm elections, Slotkin is a strong opponent.
In 2018, she defeated an incumbent Republican in the current 8th Congressional District. She was re-elected two years later with 51 percent of the vote, beating her Republican opponent by four points.
She Ended 2021 Strongly
Slotkin reported on Tuesday she collected just under $1 million in October, November, and December, ending 2021 with more than $4.5 million in cash on hand.
After joining the campaign midway through the fourth quarter, state Sen. Tom Barrett, her major GOP adversary at the start of the election year, raised well over $310,000.
According to Elena Kuhn, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman, Barrett is not your grandfather’s Republican. He’s a right-wing radical who cares more about his political career than about helping laborers and households in mid-Michigan.
The information in this survey, taken Nov. 17–18, is being used by the Congressional Leadership Fund to convince strong GOP competitors to enter the race.
The figures also include the following findings: Slotkin was behind two named Republican candidates by a wide margin, receiving just 42 percent and 43 percent of the vote.
The Washington Examiner studied the identities of the Republicans Cygnal polled, but decided to suppress them at the request of the Congressional Leadership Fund. The super PAC does not want to appear to be pushing any of these Republican candidates to take on Slotkin.